BOM: Rainfall - The chance of above median for August to October.
BOM: Rainfall - The chance of above median for August to October. BoM

The big dry to continue with first-look climate outlook

THE next three months will be both drier and warmer than average across the country, according the the Bureau of Meteorology.

BoM's August to October climate outlook, issued July 11, suggested the dry weather was likely for large parts of Australia including most of NSW and the north, east and southwest.

It revealed daytime temperatures during this time were likely to be warmer than average virtually nationwide, with very high chances for the northern half of the country.

Nights are likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia.

BoM said dry soils and the forecast for drier than average conditions mean more cloud-free nights than average are likely, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.

"The month of August is likely to be drier for the far southwest of WA, the northern NT and northern and eastern Queensland, although it should be noted that August is typically a dry month for the tropical north, apart from Queensland's east coast," BoM reported.

"The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.

"Historical outlook accuracy for August to October is moderate to high for most of the country but low in parts of southeast Australia."

Climate influences include forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions and an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific Ocean.

Byron Bay's median rainfall from August to October is 184mm, but BoM said the chance of receiving more this year was unlikely.

Ballina's median sits around 163mm and Lismore 118mm but both parts are also unlikely to see more than this over the three months.

There is a 55 per cent chance of at least 100mm during this period in Lismore.